DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/18 11:41
Livestock Contracts Run Into Headwind Come Thursday
Southern feedlots have begun to trade cattle for $142, which is $2.00 higher
than last week, but the North has yet to trade cattle.
DTN Livestock Analyst
The livestock contracts are all trading lower into Thursday's afternoon as
the market can't seem to entice traders to do much of anything. One positive
point is that the cash cattle market is finally seeing some trade develop in
the South for $2.00 higher than last week, but the North has still yet to trade
cattle. December corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is
up $6.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 84.91 points.
It has been a long, long time (years) since cattle have waited to trade
until Thursday and just now, as the noon hour approaches, a few sales are being
reported. Some light trade has been noted in the South at $142, which is $2.00
higher than last week's weighted average. Bids are continuing to be offered at
$234, but at this point, feedlots are still reluctant to accept those prices.
More cattle will need to trade this week, but unless packers get more
aggressive in their price offerings, it could be a week of thin movement. The
live cattle contracts are trading lower into Thursday's afternoon as traders
have pulled back ever so slightly. August live cattle are down $0.07 at
$141.67, October live cattle are down $0.55 at $145.30 and December live cattle
are down $0.45 at $151.05. It's positive that boxed beef prices are still
trading strong, and that demand isn't seeming to waver.
Beef net sales of 18,900 mt for 2022 were up 29% from the previous week and
unchanged from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were China
(7,400 mt), Japan (5,300 mt) and South Korea (1,900 mt).
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.27 ($265.61) and select up $1.36
($239.25) with a movement of 58 loads (32.66 loads of choice, 18.86 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 6.40 loads of ground beef).
With the rest of the livestock complex trading gingerly, and the corn market
pushing a minor steady to $0.01 rally, the feeder cattle contracts have a
lackluster attitude heading into Thursday afternoon. The market hasn't seen any
lack of fundamental support from sales this week in the countryside as demand
continues to bring buyers to town, but the aggressive rally that Wednesday
pushed has Thursday's market on its heels. August feeders are down $1.80 at
$181.45, September feeders are down $1.75 at $185.37 and October feeders are
down $1.75 at $187.80.
With a lousy export report, and pork cutout values closing Wednesday's
market $2.68 lower, the lean hog complex is running into Thursday's afternoon
substantially lower. October lean hogs are down $3.87 at $94.20, December lean
hogs are down $2.47 at $85.95 and February lean hogs are down $1.80 at $89.30.
At this point, it's seeming like traders are more interested in working the
complex lower after running it to contract highs just last week. It's unlikely
that the market sees much support arise before Thursday's end, as the cash
market will likely close lower and pork cutout values are likely to see
pressure as well.
Pork net sales of 13,600 mt for 2022 were down 37% from the previous week
and 43% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico
(7,100 mt), Japan (2,600 mt) and South Korea (900 mt).
The projected lean hog index for Aug. 17 is down $0.02 at $120.60 and the
actual index for Aug. 16 is down $0.44 at $120.62. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $9.75 with a weighted average of $119.12,
ranging from $115.50 to $132.00 on 4,078 head and a five-day rolling average of
$123.51. Pork cutouts total 121.68 loads with 105.14 loads of pork cuts and
16.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.05, $118.52.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached email@example.com
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