DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/14 11:05

   Early Gains Fade to Mixed Midday Action

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower; soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher, and 
wheat is flat to 4 cents higher.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   

   

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower; soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher, and 
wheat is flat to 4 cents higher. U.S. stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 
40. The dollar index is 25 higher. Interest rate products are closed for 
Columbus Day. Energies are weaker with crude down 1.40. Livestock trade is 
firmer, led by cattle. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $8.00.

   CORN

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with prices surging on trade 
optimism and weather before fading with details still lacking on the nature of 
the China deal struck Friday. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress 
again by late week with the extended forecast looking wetter. Ethanol margins 
have improved to start the week with ethanol futures edging higher with idled 
plants still needing a return to harvest basis to restart. Basis remains flat 
to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn 
planting is underway, with second-crop shipments out of Brazil remaining 
active. Weekly export inspections and crop progress will be delayed until 
Tuesday because of Columbus Day. On the December contract, support is at the 
10-day at $3.90, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.02.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybeans futures are 1 to 3 cents higher after initially trading nearly a 
dime higher before fading with more details on trade and potential weather 
losses before shifting to two-sided action at midday. Meal is flat to $1.00 
higher and oil is narrowly mixed. Crush margins remain good. Economically, U.S. 
export competitiveness remains improved, but at a steep currency disadvantage 
to South America with harvest needed to boost competitiveness. Bean basis 
should see pressure again if the combines get rolling again next week. South 
America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the 
month with some weather issues remaining. On the November chart support is the 
200-day at $9.10 with the upper Bollinger band at $9.39, and the spike high at 
$9.45 as resistance.

   WHEAT

   Wheat futures are flat to 4 cents higher, with the higher protein wheats 
leading and concerns about milling quality adding the most support after the 
row-crop spillover faded. The Chicago/KC December spread is 85 cents with 
choppy action continuing and KC gaining this morning. Remaining spring wheat 
harvest will likely be stopped with the incoming cold front. The corn/HRW 
spread has widened back to 28 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working 
wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea 
origin. The December KC chart support is the $4.07-$4.09 area where the 10-, 
20-, and 50-day moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger band at 
$4.27 3/4 as the new high is resistance.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

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