DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/07 10:53

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Higher

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 4 
to 5 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 4 
to 5 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is mixed with the S&P off 2 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat. 
Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude up 2.00 and 
natural gas up .05. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up $9.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with range-bound trade 
continuing with steady to firmer spread action and nearby support holding. On 
the WASDE report Wednesday, trade is looking for corn carryout at 1.266 billion 
bushels (bb) on a range of 1.20 bb to 1.335 bb, with world stocks to decline 
slightly from last month. Ethanol margins have support from natural gas while 
blender margins rebound a little with unleaded Tuesday morning. Crop 
development will continue to be watched with drier weather short-term in 
Argentina, and early double-crop planting in Brazil to continue to progress 
slowly, potentially adding support. The daily export wire was quiet after 
Monday's action. Basis has another round of softening in the central to the 
west but remains above average. On the March chart, support is at the $6.75 
20-day moving average, which we are just above at midday with the recent high 
at $6.88 3/4 still stiff resistance above the market.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade holding above 
near-term support as we continue to watch weather and nearby demand, along with 
pre-WASDE position-squaring. Meal is $9.00 to $10.00 lower and oil is 180 to 
190 points higher with crush margins still solid. The daily export wire will 
need to stay active, but we have been quiet to start the week. On the report, 
trade is looking for domestic carryout at 211 million bushels (mb) on a range 
of 176 mb to 230 mb, with world stocks down slightly from last month. Trade 
will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon as harvest expands, 
but it remains slower than usual amid showers to the north, while Argentina 
will be watched for further deterioration short-term, along with Southern 
Brazil. Basis remains mostly sideways near-term. March chart support is at the 
$15.16 20-day moving average, which we are testing at midday, with the Upper 
Bollinger Band at $15.50.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher at midday with the higher-protein 
wheats leading, along with firmer spread action at the upper end of the recent 
range with trade looking to consolidate the recent move higher pre-report. The 
Southern Plains will warm up with the more significant precipitation remaining 
to the east with more potential the second week, with little change to the 
Black Sea short-term. Matif wheat values are firmer as well, helping support 
action, while the stronger dollar limits upside. On the report, expectations 
are for carryout at 576 mb, on a range of 557 mb to 612 mb, with world stocks 
up slightly. On the chart, KC March has support at the 20-day moving average at 
$8.53, which we are solidly above, with the recent high at $8.95 as resistance 
with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.98.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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